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The Long View

"In just a matter of weeks, top economists and investment bank analysts have gone from expecting the coronavirus outbreak to have minimal impact on the U.S. economy to warning that an outright recession may be on the horizon." Dion Rabouin, axios.com, 28 Feb 20

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-recession-warnings-9eb743aa-2fd2-47ac-9e85-19ff54a07d3c.html


While "top economists and investment bank analysts" focus narrowly on quarterly earnings statements and security analysts' calls, real strategists take -- in the words of Peter Schwartz -- the long view. Balancing a study of historical trends, forecasting, and scenario development with a critical eye toward unique developments, strategists develop a nuanced perspective of alternative futures that are informed by a comprehensive view of the environment and the forces ebbing and flowing in that environment. If you're looking to gain a better handle on the coronavirus' effects as they intersect with other factors at the local, national, and international levels, you'll be much better served to find yourself a good strategist than to place your faith in analysts focused on short-term gains and whose personal and professional interests are tied to the immediate movements of the markets.

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